Bulgaria is on track to adopt the euro by January 1, 2026, as it meets key Maastricht criteria, including inflation stabilization, a low debt-to-GDP ratio, and a manageable budget deficit. Economic experts highlight ongoing preparations despite political challenges, with inflation consistently below 3% and other macroeconomic indicators aligning with eurozone requirements. If euro adoption is not achieved in mid-2025, early 2026 remains a viable target for full integration into the EU's monetary framework.
Will Bulgaria adopt the euro by January 2026?
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Bulgaria
Author: Nikolina Basić
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Fiscal subject related
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Content accuracy validation date:
17.01.2025
Content accuracy validation time:
08:48h
Economic experts in Bulgaria, mostly based in the Institute for Market Economics, stated in an interview with Bulgarian National Radio that it is highly likely Bulgarians will begin making payments in euros starting from January 1, 2026, despite the political turmoil in the country. They emphasized that the economy is expected to meet the necessary criteria within a few days, predicting that the country's average annual inflation will be around 2.5-2.6%.
Although the legal framework is still being worked out, it has been noted that Bulgaria is already effectively operating in a transitional phase, and payments in euros are being made without negatively impacting specific social groups. At present, they acknowledged that the Ministry of Finance is working hard to manage these complexities, despite the pressure on the national budget.
Also, Bulgaria is currently meeting the Maastricht criteria required for eurozone membership, with its macroeconomic indicators indicating a stable path toward adopting the euro by 2024. According to data from Eurostat, inflation in Bulgaria has remained consistently below 3% for several consecutive months, fulfilling one of the key conditions for joining the single currency. From June to November 2024, inflation was 2.8% in June and July, then decreased to 2.4% in August, 1.5% in September, and finally stabilized at 2% in October and November. This is a notable improvement from November 2023, when inflation stood at 5.5%.
Additionally, Bulgaria's budget deficit is expected to stay within the 3% limit required for eurozone entry, while unemployment remains at historically low levels around 4%. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is also well below the necessary threshold, currently almost half of the 60% criterion.
Therefore, given these favorable conditions, many economists believe that Bulgaria is on track for euro adoption in the near future. If it does not join the eurozone in mid-2025, the next opportunity is expected in early 2026. Economic analysts argue that any delay would undermine the national interest and Bulgaria’s goal of completing its full integration into the European Union. Adopting the euro is seen as a crucial step in this process.
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